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10Y-2Y Yield Curve

+37 bps

10Y 4.98% · 2Y 4.61%

2026-10-29

The yield curve is normally sloped, with long-term rates above short-term rates.

10Y Yield Velocity

-12 bps / 10 sessions

5d +2 bps · 20d -31 bps · z -0.78

2026-10-29

This move is within a normal historical range (20th percentile of 10-day moves).

10Y Real Yield Velocity

-15 bps / 10 sessions

5d -1 bps · 20d -30 bps · z -0.98

2026-10-29

This move is within a normal historical range (13th percentile of 10-day moves).

Rate Move Decomposition

125% real-yield-led

nominal -12 bps · real -15 bps · breakeven +3 bps

2026-10-29

This move is real-yield-led, or real yields and breakevens are moving in opposite directions — the more concerning configuration per the research.